Why the toss matters more in knockout cricket

In a league you get ten chances to be unlucky. In a semi-final you get one.

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Why the toss matters more in knockout cricket

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Nobody proposes abolishing the toss after a group match. The suggestions arrive on the morning after a semi-final.

Variance and sample size

Across a long season, a coin lands heads about as often as it lands tails and the advantage evens out. A single knockout match has no such mechanism.

Alternatives that have been tried

Giving the visiting captain the choice, or awarding it on group position, both change the incentives around pitch preparation. That is either the point or the problem, depending on who is preparing the pitch.

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